9 wins is still on the table for Syracuse

Three weeks ago, I started a column on this website with the following sentence: The Syracuse football team has roared out of the gates to start the 2023 campaign, blowing out a pair of overmatched opponents by a combined score of 113-7.

Things were cool for the following two weeks, as the Orange pushed their start to 4-0 with a solid win at Purdue, then a home win over Army that required a second-half course correction.

Another two weeks later, things have taken a sharp turn straight into the ditch. SU dug themselves a hole they could not escape from against Clemson, then got dominated at North Carolina in a classic “burn the tape” performance.

Things do not look any better this week, as the team’s itinerary shows travel from Syracuse to Tallahassee for a matchup with #4 Florida State.

But, if you turn back the calendar to September 1, a 4-2 Orange team heading to FSU… sounds exactly right. Frankly, SU has taken the most likely path to get there, so the biggest surprise to this point of the season is either the first half against Army being so rough or Saturday’s UNC game being so bad from start to finish.

While facing the Seminoles will not be a walk in the park and the squad looks like a strong candidate to return to Syracuse with a 4-3 record, it is not all bad.

ESPN’s Football Power Index still has the Orange ranked #28 in the nation and is projecting them to finish 8-4 (technically, 7.9-4.1, but you get the point). During the offseason, those same FPI ratings had SU projected to finish with… 7.5 wins. So, while SU has performed so poorly the last couple weeks, they look better than they did before the season got underway.

Why?

Well, the rest of the competition remaining on their schedule following the Seminoles does not look so good.

Next week is the Orange’s bye, then they close with games at Virginia Tech, home against Boston College, in New York City against Pittsburgh, at Georgia Tech, and home against Wake Forest. Of that group, only Wake Forest is above .500 on the season overall at 3-2 and Georgia Tech is the only one above .500 in ACC play at 2-1.

Wake’s best win of the season came against a 3-3 Old Dominion team and they also gave the Yellow Jackets their conference win that was not a result of Miami’s colossally interesting decisions to neither kneel out the clock nor play deep zone defense in the last 30 seconds of their game Saturday night.

If you want a wider evaluation of those opponents, here is where they currently rank in those same FPI ratings that have the Orange among the nation’s top 30 teams:

• Virginia Tech – 72nd

• Boston College – 89th

• Pittsburgh – 57th

• Georgia Tech – 55th

• Wake Forest – 59th

If you do not trust FPI, the Jeff Sagarin ratings have SU at #49 in the nation. The best of those five future opponents is Wake Forest at #66 with BC #90 and the other three teams clustered in the upper 70’s.

The SP+ rankings at ESPN.com have Syracuse ranked 38th nationally. Among those future foes, Wake Forest is the best, listed at #51.

The Massey Composite Ratings, which combine 65 different rankings (almost half of them with the Orange somewhere in the 40’s), have Syracuse in virtually the same spot, listing them 48th overall. Georgia Tech shows up at #58, Wake at #68, and the others #83 or lower.

Of course, what a computer says will happen and what happens on a football field are two different things.

On a football field, Virginia Tech has only beaten Old Dominion and Pitt at home this season while also losing to common opponent Purdue.

Each of Boston College’s three wins this season – against Holy Cross, Virginia, and Army – have come by three points.

Pitt, who has been as big a thorn in Dino Babers’ side as anyone else while at Syracuse, winning six of seven against him, has only defeated FCS opponent Wofford and is currently going through a quarterback change.

Georgia Tech may have just pulled off that Miami upset, but they were manhandled by Bowling Green at home the previous week, including giving up 38 straight points to the Falcons.

Before facing the Orange, Wake Forest will run through a four-game gauntlet that includes three currently ranked foes and a 4-2 North Carolina State team. The Demon Deacons could very well be physically beat up heading to their eighth straight game after their bye week, including their fifth road trip, when closing the regular season at SU.

In any case, it is a legitimate possibility that Syracuse will be favored in their final five games. FPI expects them to win four more games the rest of the way, so getting all five in the win column is possible. That would make the Orange 9-3 on the season and possibly send them someplace more appealing than the Pinstripe Bowl.

As a result of that remaining schedule, it is possible that the most important thing for the Orange to do against Florida State is to leave the game without any more major injuries. SU has a bye the following Saturday before starting that closing stretch with a Thursday night matchup against Virginia Tech to help get guys rested and ready. With any luck, a rested team also gets some players back for their finishing kick.

So, while things currently look grim right now for Syracuse, the light at the end of the tunnel may not be the oncoming train.

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