Don't be surprised if Jaquan Carlos is Syracuse's starting point guard
While the Syracuse basketball program still has some, uh, stuff, going on in the transfer portal, one of the less attention-grabbing among those things still going on is that they may still be looking for a starting point guard. This, of course, is in spite of already landing a point guard in Jaquan Carlos, who spent three years at Hofstra, the last two as a starter.
Despite Carlos being a two-year starter and owner of two more postseason non-conference tournament game starts than the entire Orange roster for the Pride, some sections of the SU fanbase do not believe that nickname is apt. Yes, Hofstra played at a lower level in the Coastal Athletic Association, but maybe thinking Carlos is not up to task of playing or starting at Syracuse is going down the wrong path.
Carlos is not a perfect player. He is short and slight, even for a point guard, at 6’0” and 160 pounds and is likely to have some bumpy moments against ACC players based on those figures.
Carlos has not been an extremely polished 3-point shooter to this point of his career. In his two years as a starter with the Pride, Carlos has 36 made 3’s at a 32.1 percent clip and 44 made 3’s at a 34.4 percent mark.
The CAA, where Carlos plied his trade for Hofstra, of course, is a lower-level conference. The Coastal Athletic was ranked 18th among the 32 conferences by the NET rankings in the 2023-2024 season after being 26th the year prior.
As such, the Pride are certainly not among the elite basketball programs in the nation. Here is where they stood in several computational rankings following the 2023-2024 season: NET 112, KenPom 113, T-Rank 109.
For comparison’s sake, the Orange ranked moderately better in those measurements: NET 84, KenPom 80, T-Rank 71. SU ranked 11th among 15 ACC teams last season in those measurements, clearly better than Hofstra, who would have finished 13th in the ACC by those measurements, more or less.
However, in 2022-2023, the first year in which Carlos piloted the Pride, their rankings were: NET 86, KenPom 89, T-Rank 87. The Orange, in that very same year, ranked this way: NET 124, KenPom 118, T-Rank 131. That ranking would slot Hofstra ninth among ACC teams that season while finishing nearly 30 spots ahead of the tenth place team – Syracuse.
Of course, the entire Hofstra roster did not transfer upstate, just Carlos. As mentioned earlier, Carlos is not a great 3-point shooter, but better filed as still developing. His best season at long-range shooting came last year when he made 44 triples at a 34.4 percent clip.
As pedestrian as Carlos’ efforts were beyond the arc, they still surpassed the efforts of last season’s Orange backcourt of Judah Mintz (24 makes, 28.2 percent) and J.J. Starling (44 makes, 32.4 percent).
While they tied in treys made, Carlos was well behind behind Starling in one shooting mark, as he made just 47.1 percent of his 2-point field goal attempts while the Orange two-guard drained a gaudy 53.6 percent of his attempts inside the arc. Mintz also edged out Carlos, making 47.7 percent of his twos last season.
That said, there is reason to believe Carlos can continue to improve his perimeter touch. In addition to improving his 3-point shooting over the last two years, he also boosted his mark at the foul line from 79.2 percent to 89.2 percent while increasing the number of attempts from 48 to 74. That level of shooting and improvement illustrates both Carlos’ work ethic and his shooting touch.
That number of attempts pales in comparison to Mintz’s 264 attempts last year and Carlos is very unlikely to more than triple his free throw attempts this season, but Mintz also shot 76.5 percent at the line, well behind Carlos’ mark. Starling was even farther behind at 71.4 percent.
In fact, the trio’s true shooting percentages were almost mirror images of one another. Carlos posted a 54.1 percent mark, as did Mintz, while Starling was at 53.2 percent.
Both Mintz and Starling had a heavier shooting load on their shoulders for SU, ranking first and third in field goal attempts per minute among those who saw regular action (Chris Bell slid between the two). Carlos took significantly fewer shots per minute last season at Hofstra than either SU starting guard, as well as Quadir Copeland, Benny Williams, and Kyle Cuffe, Jr. took for the Orange).
That’s okay, though. Carlos has proven to be a much better true point guard than anyone on the Syracuse roster. Carlos’ time at Hofstra was spent under the tutelage of head coach Speedy Claxton, who played seven years in the NBA at point guard.
Mintz and Starling combined for 6.3 assists per game last year, matching Carlos’ mark with the Pride. The two SU guards amassed 202 helpers in 32 games compared to Carlos’ 208 dimes in 33 games.
Mintz and Starling committed 149 turnovers while handing out those assists, logging a combined 1.36-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio (Mintz was the better half of the duo at 1.51-to-1). Meanwhile, Carlos turned the ball over 87 times last season, giving him a 2.39-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. That actually was worse than his efforts as a sophomore, as he posted a 2.71-to-1 ratio in 2022-2023 (168 assists, 62 turnovers).
The point guards at Syracuse with a comparable assist-to-turnover ratio in recent and even less-than-recent history is a short list:
• Tyler Ennis, 2013-2014 season: 3.22-to-1
• John Gillon, 2016-2017 season: 2.56-to-1
• Scoop Jardine, 2009-2010 season: 2.25-to-1
• Allen Griffin, 2000-2001 season: 2.24-to-1
• Scoop Jardine, 2011-2012 season: 2.13-to-1
• Michael Carter-Williams, 2012-2013 season: 2.11-to-1
• Scoop Jardine, 2010-2011 season: 2.05-to-1
• James Thues, 2001-2002 season: 2.02-to-1
Carlos’ last two seasons would fit second and fourth on that list.
Carlos had a career-high 19 assists against Northeastern last season. That would be the second-highest single-game mark in Orange history. His 208 dimes last season would rank as the third-highest effort at SU among juniors. The names around him in both those stats in the record book are Sherman Douglas and Pearl Washington. This is not to blow up expectations for him, but just to show what he is capable of doing as a pass-first floor general.
Should Carlos end up the starting point guard for Syracuse this coming season, it is likely that he will be on the floor a lot with Starling, Bell, Donnie Freeman, and Naheem McLeod. McLeod setting screens for Carlos should open up a lot of options for him as a passer. Simple pick-and-roll with the 7’4” center? Kick out to Bell in the corner? Starling cutting to the rim? Freeman in the dunker spot stepping in to flush an alley oop?
To sum all those options up, a pass-first point guard like Carlos, while not being a showstopper upon first glance, may be exactly what the doctor ordered for the rest of the talent around him on the roster.
In watching him play, you can see Carlos is a smart player who uses creativity as both a finisher and passer. Despite not being lightning quick to offset his small stature, he is a two-time CAA All-Defense team member. Simply put, Carlos has built his game around his limitations to be a very effective player on both ends of the floor.
While he does not have a star’s name and a gaudy reputation, Jaquan Carlos could very well be an excellent addition to not just the roster, but the starting lineup for the Orange.
----
Chat about this story and all things Syracuse and Syracuse recruiting on our premium message board, Cuse Classified!
Follow us on Twitter @TheJuiceOnline, like us on Facebook, follow us on Instagram @SUJuiceOnline and listen to our podcast.
Tips/questions/concerns? E-mail Recruiting Analyst Charles Kang here.
Not a subscriber to The Juice Online? Join today for access to all our premium content and message board community.