Matchup against Purdue a barometer for Syracuse football
The Syracuse football team has roared out of the gates to start the 2023 campaign, blowing out a pair of overmatched opponents by a combined score of 113-7. That +106 point differential certainly looks impressive, even if it came at the expense of FCS school Colgate and Group of Five team Western Michigan.
You only have to go back to the 2018 season to see the Orange score more points than that in their first two games as they rolled up 117 points in victories over (coincidentally) Western Michigan and FCS opponent Wagner. That SU defense, however, gave up 52 points in those two games, mostly because that year’s Broncos squad posted 42 points and would finish 7-6 after earning a bowl bid.
That 2018 Syracuse team was the best one since the 2001 squad, as the two teams finished with identical 10-3 marks. The 2018 unit also pulled off a much more impressive feat for Orange teams: finishing with a positive point differential against Power Five conference opponents.
Including their bowl game, that team had ten games against Power Five foes, broken down to eight ACC teams, Notre Dame, and West Virginia in the Camping World Bowl. SU outscored their opponents in those ten games, 355-278, for a +77 point differential.
When you look at other Orange teams that made bowls after recent seasons, you get a feeling for how rare a feat that is, as other recent bowl teams in Syracuse history did not perform so well against Power Five opponents.
The 2010 team that made the first of two bowl appearances under head coach Doug Marrone finished 8-5 overall, including edging Kansas State in the Pinstripe Bowl, 36-34. However, their point differential against eight Power Five opponents (Washington, Kansas State, and the Big East teams who are currently in power conferences) was -35.
Two years later, Marrone guided the Orange back to the Pinstripe Bowl with another 8-5 record after they defeated West Virginia, 38-14. That squad faced nine Power Five opponents, including Northwestern, USC, Minnesota, and Missouri outside of the Big East. SU finished those nine games with a +8 point differential.
In 2013, Scott Shafer guided Syracuse to a bowl game, eking out a 7-6 record after knocking off Minnesota in the Texas Bowl. Of their 13 games, 11 came against Power Five foes, as the Orange were now facing eight ACC teams as a member of their new conference (Penn State and Northwestern were on the non-conference slate). That team’s point differential against Power Five opponents was a brutal -124, suggesting the team was even luckier to reach bowl eligibility than scoring the winning points of their sixth win with six seconds to play in their final game might suggest.
Dino Babers’ second bowl team, last year’s 7-6 SU squad, also took on 11 Power Five opponents, facing Purdue and Notre Dame, as well as Minnesota in the Pinstripe Bowl. Their results were also not great, as their point differential was -33 against those opponents.
So, while the first two games look awfully impressive for Syracuse, the scoring differential they amass against a fair level of competition starting with Purdue this week will tell a truer tale of their quality.
After all, the 2013 team that played so poorly against competition on their level rolled up a 106-17 margin against non-Power Five foes Wagner and Tulane. There is not much difference between those figures and the 2023 team’s start.
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