Syracuse Orange v. Duke Blue Devils Prediction & Preview (2/18/23)

Syracuse (16-10, 9-6 ACC) will wrap up their two game homestand on Saturday evening at 6 p.m. when it welcomes Duke (TV: ESPN). The Blue Devils (18-8, 9-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday when they held off Notre Dame, 68-64. Freshman center Kyle Filipowski had a bounceback game after struggling on Saturday against Virginia, leading the way with 22 points against the Fighting Irish.

Duke has employed a deep rotation this season, as nine different players average at least 15 minutes per game. Filipowski paces the team with 15.1 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. Jeremy Roach is the Blue Devils’ only other double-digit scorer, averaging 12.5 points per outing, while Mark Mitchell, Tyrese Proctor, and Dariq Whitehead each average between eight and nine points. Whitehead returned to action on Saturday, playing his first game in nearly three weeks after suffering a sprain in his lower left leg.

Unlike some of their recent teams, this year’s Duke squad is not a perimeter-heavy squad, as they are 13th in the ACC in both three-pointers made and attempted per game. While that is good for Syracuse’s 2-3 zone, it is not all rainbows and unicorns. The Blue Devils pound the glass very effectively, standing fifth in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, helping boost them to fourth in the country in rebounding percentage.

Jesse Edwards and Maliq Brown will have their work cut out for them and if Chris Bell’s recent rebounding spike (six against Florida State) is for real, that would help keep SU in the game. Filipowski and Ryan Young are a solid duo on the glass for Duke and, if Dereck Lively II can stay out of foul trouble, he gives the Blue Devils a third good rebounder as well as an excellent shot blocker.

Duke is not the powerhouse the name on the front of their jerseys suggests and a couple of their flaws play into SU’s hands. The Blue Devils have been sloppy in ACC play, turning the ball over 13.3 times a game with 6.9 of those miscues being opponent steals.

The Orange has forced at least a dozen turnovers in six of seven games with at least six steals in six of eight. Syracuse’s defense has also featured reduced fouling as of late, committing just 33 fouls in the last three games, leading to just 17 fouls shots for their opponents.

Those small defensive details help the Orange stay close throughout and generate a few extra fast break points to help pull it out in the end, 71-68.

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