Syracuse Orange v. Florida State Seminoles Prediction & Preview (10/14/23)

Syracuse (4-2, 0-2 ACC) continues its three-game road swing when it heads down to Tallahassee to face off against Florida State.

Opponent: Florida State Seminoles (5-0, 3-0)

Date & Time: Saturday, Oct. 14, 12:00 p.m.

Location: Doak S. Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL.

TV: ABC

Syracuse enters this matchup with #4 Florida State reeling, having dropped their last two games, which were competitive for roughly two quarters combined. The Seminoles are no joke, having won their first five games, including a season-opening neutral-site win over then-#5 LSU and three victories in ACC play, highlighted by a road win at Clemson.

FSU is an offensive machine, rolling up over 42 points per game, a figure good for sixth in the nation. Their yardage per game ranks a much more pedestrian 43rd in the nation with just ten more yards per game than the Orange, but they stand 21st in the country in yards per play, close to a yard ahead of SU.

The ‘Noles offensive power is a function of efficiency combined with explosion. Quarterback Jordan Travis has just one interception in 145 pass attempts while suffering just six sacks and the team has four fumbles on the season, losing only two.

Travis distributes the ball to several players effectively, as there are six receivers with at least nine receptions on the season and each one has a long reception of at least 29 yards. The Seminoles eat up almost six yards per rushing play with four different players authoring a long run of at least 34 yards with top ballcarrier Trey Benson having two such rushes.

FSU is a little less imposing on the defensive side of the ball. Each of their five opponents have run for at least 3.5 yards per carry against the ‘Noles, so SU may look to establish the run a little more with Garrett Shrader and LeQuint Allen.

That rushing attack will be key in keeping the Orange in favorable or even reasonable third-down situations, as Florida State has been generally very good at getting off the field. FSU limits their opponents to converting 31.9 percent of their third down opportunities, which includes the aberration of Boston College converting over 42 percent of their chances.

An effective ground game should be a goal for Syracuse, as it will help shorten the game. A bonus goal of being able to move the chains on the ground would be putting a little less importance on the Orange’s erratic passing game.

Shrader’s passing over the last four weeks have resulted in an impressive second half against Army and not much other production meriting mention. Even with that strong stretch against the Black Knights, Shrader is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for just over 182 yards per game and three scores total in the last four games. More disheartening is his average of just 7.01 yards per attempt in those four outings.

On the other end of those passes, SU’s leading receivers have struggled to be sources of consistent production. Donovan Brown leads the team in receptions on the campaign, but his production has slid the last three weeks, accounting for 92 receiving yards in that span. Umari Hatcher and Damien Alford seem to either show up on the stat sheet or not. Hatcher has two games without a catch in the last four and Alford backed up a nine-catch, 135-yard game against Army with one catch against Clemson and one fewer than that at North Carolina.

All in all, it adds up to another long day for the Orange. It will be a long flight home from Tallahassee after a 34-13 loss.

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