Syracuse Orange v. NC State Wolfpack Prediction & Preview (1/27/24)

Syracuse (13-6, 4-4 ACC) will look to rebound from its first home loss of the season when it hosts N.C. State on Saturday.

Opponent: N.C. State (13-6, 5-3 ACC)

Date & Time: Saturday, Jan. 27, 7:00 p.m.

Location: JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, N.Y.

TV: ACC Network

Syracuse will look to make their three-game homestead a winning one when they match up with North Carolina State on Saturday. Both teams are coming off defeats, as the Orange (13-6, 4-4 ACC) wilted in the second half Tuesday night, dropping an 85-69 game to Florida State, and the Wolfpack (13-6, 5-3 ACC) dropped their second straight contest on Wednesday, ending up on the short end of a 59-53 overtime rock fight with Virginia.

The popular statistical analysis systems find the two teams to be nearly the same, as KenPom’s rankings of #75 (N.C. State) and #82 (SU) are the biggest gap. The NET rankings have the ‘Pack two spots ahead of Syracuse while T-Rank has them reversed with the Orange directly in front of their conference mates.

Even a closer examination finds the two guard-heavy teams to be similar, with North Carolina State a little better on offense and SU almost equally better on defense. The biggest difference between the two is that both teams are equally good at forcing turnovers, but the Wolfpack are elite at protecting the ball while Syracuse is just better than average.

N.C. State, however, has had some struggles on offense in recent ACC games. In their last seven outings, all in conference play, the Wolfpack have shot 40.8 percent overall and just 27.6 percent from 3-point range. The “Pack have still had a couple games with ten triples in that span, so they are capable of catching fire on the perimeter.

DJ Horne is the player atop the scouting report and his shooting ability is the primary reason why. Horne has shot 42.1 percent from 3 this season, including hitting six triples in three different games. Keeping him out of rhythm (he also has a 9-for-13 game in the mid-range this season) will be key for the Orange and a likely task for Judah Mintz.

With North Carolina State starting four guards and playing five in their eight-man rotation, SU should be able to hang with them inside and, perhaps more importantly, either Chris Bell or Justin Taylor should be in a matchup where height alone will help provide clean looks at the rim. With Taylor likely to face the Wolfpack’s tallest and best-rebounding guard, the 6’6” Dennis Parker, Bell will draw a defender at least three inches shorter than him. With that advantage and his quick release, Bell’s three-point shooting will be a key for Syracuse.

N.C. State’s propensity to force turnovers is concerning, as marked by forcing Virginia, who are top-ten nationally in protecting the ball, to turn it over on 22.1 percent of their possessions Wednesday night. In fact, the Wolfpack has forced their opponents into a turnover rate of 18.3 percent or higher a dozen times this season, including their last three games, and have a 9-3 record in those games. In the losses, their opponents shot 48.3 percent overall and 38.6 percent on 3-pointers.

The Orange coughed up the ball at a 21.3 percent rate in their Tuesday night loss to Florida State, a team that is good, but not great, at creating opponent mistakes. In fact, SU has committed turnovers at least 18.3 percent of the time nine times this season, including all six of their losses. In their three wins, LSU, Georgetown, and Oregon combined to shoot 11-for-75 (14.7 percent) on 3’s, offsetting that poor turnover rate.

Syracuse has to protect the ball, shut down Horne, and get perimeter shooting from Bell on Saturday to win. They have just become hard to trust at all three of those facets lately as the Wolfpack takes a 71-67 decision.

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