How Syracuse can still make the NCAA Tournament

While the winter weather forecasts have not been generally terrible in Syracuse, the outlook for the Orange’s NCAA Tournament hopes is grim. SU is 14-10 on the season and 7-6 in ACC play, leaving them behind Wake Forest in the back end of a tie for eighth place in the conference.

A lot can happen between now and then and even eight days later when the NCAA field is set. And “a lot” is precisely what this Orange basketball team needs to make happen.

While Syracuse could take the direct path and win the ACC Tournament, the odds of that are either slim, exceptionally slim, or not even worth having, in the eyes of some online sportsbooks.

Of course, those odds are set based on SU winning either four or five games in as many days in Greensboro. The other option, an at-large ticket to the dance, is about just as likely a happening, but at least there is data to talk about with that option.

As of Tuesday morning, Syracuse is ranked #97 in the NCAA NET rankings and the supporting data does a solid job of explaining why. The Orange are 0-5 in Quadrant 1 games, 1-3 in Quadrant 2, 5-2 in Quadrant 3, and 8-0 in Quadrant 4. Simply put in the language any involved in the tournament selection process: Who have they beaten? Virginia Tech, once in two chances.

SU still has seven more conference games left on their slate, so they can exert some control over their destiny. Those remaining games, including each team’s NET ranking as of Tuesday morning and a notation if they are in one of the top two quadrants:

Florida State (away) – 208 in NET

NC State (home) – 41 in NET (quad 2)

Duke (home) – 29 in NET (quad 1)

Clemson (away) – 64 in NET (quad 1)

Pittsburgh (away) – 55 in NET (quad 1)

Georgia Tech (home) – 225 in NET

Wake Forest (home) – 70 in NET (quad 2)

Based on the five total games remaining against top 2 quadrant teams, Syracuse can definitely make their resume more appealing. Based on last season’s worst at-large bid recipients, in the eyes of the NET ranking, they will need to.

The Orange currently reside 20 slots lower in the NET rankings than last season’s lowest at-large bid team. Rutgers made the tournament while sitting at #77 in the NET last season, but their resume was a lot beefier. The Scarlet Knights were 6-6 in Quadrant 1 games and 3-4 in Quadrant 2 games. SU can only tie that number of Quadrant 2 wins while getting halfway to the Quadrant 1 mark without doing even more resume-boosting in the ACC Tournament.

Obviously, sweeping the rest of the schedule would be ideal, but even doing that would get the Orange to 21-10 overall and 14-6 in conference play with 3-5 and 3-3 marks in the top two quads. That would quite possibly do it for SU, provided they did not lose their conference tourney opener, and they would probably do so on the strength of their conference record more than anything else.

Of course, here is the glorious catch about the NET rankings: Beating someone lowers their ranking, which can potentially, or eventually, nudge them down to a lower quadrant. On Sunday, Wisconsin lost at home to Northwestern and fell eight slots to #77 on Monday morning. The Badgers crossed the line from Quadrant 1 to Quadrant 2 when playing at home, so multiple teams lost a quad 1 win and picked up a quad 2 win om Sunday… without doing anything.

Duke is currently lined up to be a Quadrant 1 win for the Orange at home. Of course, that’s by just about the slimmest of margins and beating them a week from Saturday might play a part in knocking them from the top 30. The same scenario exists for Clemson and Wake Forest. Beating them may help drive each of them out of the top 75, meaning a road win over the Tigers could go in the books as a Quadrant 2 win instead of a Quadrant 1 victory and knocking off the Demon Deacons at home could drop them from Quadrant 2 to Quadrant 3.

Every at-large NCAA bid recipient last season had at least two Quadrant 1 wins. #53 Notre Dame had a 2-8 Quadrant 1 record and went 2-1 against Quadrant 2 teams. Davidson was the only other team to make it with just two Quadrant 1 wins (#41 ranking, 2-2 in quad 1 games and 4-3 in quad 2 games). North Carolina was the only other team to get an at-large bid while not notching at least eight total victories in top two quadrant games. The Tar Heels were ranked #31 and had three wins in each of the top two quadrants.

Last season, the Tar Heels converted their at-large bod into a title game appearance before losing. But, let’s keep Syracuse’s goals a little more realistic, as slim as they are.

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