For Syracuse football, hopeful talk and lessons learned (or maybe not)

Summer is the time for unchecked optimism for college football fans with the spring session in the rearview mirror, tantalizingly brief snippets of summer workout hype videos getting released on social media, and autumn well off in the distance like a mirage.

For Syracuse, summer’s optimism allows fans to dream about what could be. Making a bowl game in back-to-back seasons. Winning eight games. Notching a second ten-win season under Dino Babers. Maybe even more.

That optimism comes from lots of sources inside the program. Last year, the Orange returned to bowl eligibility after a three-year absence. Shortly after the regular season ended, SU began adding players to the program through both the transfer portal and on traditional recruiting’s early signing day. As spring continued, so did the commitments to the program and even some departures were noteworthy, as Syracuse had a pair of players selected in the NFL draft for the third time in four years with both players getting tabbed in the top 75 picks.

In addition to the good vibes emanating from campus, the feeling of optimism is bolstered from several sources outside the program. Like the athletic department’s videos that get sent out, several media outlets send out snippets through social media that get funneled to the Orange fan base. By the time late spring rolls around, those tweets help keep that football team from slipping to the back of fans’ minds, such as the ACC Network tweeting projected win totals for teams in the conference as generated by ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index):

As you can see, the tweet lists SU at 7.5 wins, right on the heels of traditional power Miami and fifth in the conference. The Orange have only cleared the seven-win plateau once since entering the ACC, so that number should certainly put a hop in the step the fanbase.

Another tradition of the offseason is media outlets putting out predictions and honors for the upcoming season. Athlon Sports was quick to present theirs four weeks ago, posting that seven different Syracuse players were named to pre-season all-ACC teams:

In addition, a few individual players were singled out for their play last season among all returning college football players. Pro Football Focus, a football analysis website, highlighted the efforts of Orange quarterback Garrett Shrader, tight end Oronde Gadsden II, and linebacker Marlowe Wax last season:

They also noted that Shrader was the third-best quarterback in the conference among returnees, behind a couple players expected to get drafted into the NFL early next April, including Drake Maye, who is thought of as a top-5 pick:

All these positive feelings are also positives for the program. They drive excitement for the fanbase, can help with ticket sales and other forms of revenue, and improve the overall profile of the university as a whole.

But, what is really there? Can Syracuse achieve its modest goal of making a second consecutive bowl for the first time since the 2012-2013 seasons?

While ESPN’s FPI has the Orange fifth in the conference and being somewhere between a seven- and eight-win team, that’s actually a pretty common expectation in the ACC. Four teams in the conference fall between 7.8 and 7.1 wins in FPI’s projection, with North Carolina at 8.2 wins and Louisville at 6.9. That’s a big bundle of teams knotted together, making it look like several potential Syracuse wins are on a razor’s edge.

SU will not face a couple teams from that cluster on their schedule, but three of the four teams ahead of them in FPI projections form the opening trio of conference games for the Orange. Syracuse hosts Clemson for their ACC opener, then travels to North Carolina and Florida State. While the Orange have a manageable start to their slate (Colgate, Western Michigan, and Army at home should be wins and a trip to Purdue is somewhere around a tossup) that trio of ACC foes looks like trouble.

While FPI looks pretty favorably on Syracuse, particularly in that their projection has them 34th in the nation, another one of ESPN’s statistical projections is not as generous. Their SP+ rating lists SU at tenth in the conference and 59th in the nation.

Athlon may like several Orange players enough to name them to their assorted all-conference teams, but only one made the first team and another made the second. Overall, Athlon filled 130 slots with their first- through fourth-teams. SU players filled eight of those slots with seven players (Trebor Pena received two mentions, appearing as both a kickoff and punt returner). The average ACC team had ten honorees.

Subsequently, the Orange were predicted 10th of 14 teams in Athlon’s ACC rankings.

There is a perennial concern for the Syracuse football team that looms, as well. The roster is thin, thin, thin.

Last year, when the ACC portion of the schedule ramped up, the Orange got banged up. It is not a stretch to imagine that happening with this campaign’s Clemson-North Carolina-Florida State start. Last season, Garrett Williams, Mikel Jones, Alijah Clark, Stefon Thompson, Shrader, Pena, Matthew Bergeron, Christopher Bleich, Chris Elmore, and many more top-line players missed at least one game.

Shrader may be conspicuously absent from those Athlon All-ACC preseason teams, but what happens to SU’s chances if he gets injured again? How much would a high ankle sprain to Gadsden put a crimp on the Orange passing game? LeQuint Allen looked like a future star in the Pinstripe Bowl in December, but who carries the load if he gets banged up? Who generates the pass rush if Caleb Okechukwu, who had seven of the team’s returnees’ 20 sacks last season, goes down?

If top players are injured, who replaces them? High school recruiting rankings for both freshmen and incoming transfers are nice, but can these guys play? And can they play now, if needed?

Syracuse bolstered their roster with a dozen transfers, many of them coming from big-name college programs with strong high school recruiting rankings. The player with the most notable experience in college, however, is Jack Stonehouse, who won the punting job last year at Missouri and finished sixth in the SEC with a 42.4-yard average. The player with the second-most experience? Offensive lineman David Wohlabaugh, Jr., who comes to the Orange after playing in eight games last season for Kentucky.

While summer is the time for daydreaming about a return to Syracuse football glory with a cold one, just remember that there could be a cold splash of reality when the season starts in fall.

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