The voting media did not think particularly highly of the Orange at ACC Media Days. When the ballots were tabulated, SU was voted tenth in the conference with more space separating them from ninth-place Pittsburgh than Florida State in 11th.

And that is a completely reasonable conclusion.

Syracuse has one new head coach, one new primary defensive system, two fewer established offensive threats, at least two new starters, five new players, and probably some other things that are currently slipping the mind. While Adrian Autry has been involved with the program for a long time, sliding over one seat on the bench from associate head coach to head coach is a lot farther than how the chairs are placed.

Jesse Edwards and Joe Girard were far from perfect players, but they combined for almost 31 points per game last season. While the roster has the most raw talent it has seen in a long time, the known entities are Judah Mintz, J.J. Starling, and probably Naheem McLeod. That means there are a lot of unknowns out there. Here’s a partial list:

While they both have capability to be the top offensive option, will Mintz and Starling mesh well together and shoot well enough from long distance to keep driving lanes open?

Will Benny Williams pay off all his athleticism and potential after a couple seasons of leaving coaches and fans wanting more?

Or will Maliq Brown’s dependable, metronome play allow him to surpass Williams in the starting lineup on a permanent basis?

Will either Chris Bell or Justin Taylor grab the small forward role from the other?

Is Naheem McLeod the defensive force he looks like, both on paper and in person?

Will Mounir Hima play well enough to allow both himself and McLeod to play without fear of fouling on defense?

How does Quadir Copeland fit himself into the rotation? Does he keep Kyle Cuffe Jr. on the bench or does the latter’s shooting prove to be real at propel himself into the rotation?

Oh, and how do these guys play man-to-man defense?

All told, those questions (and others left unwritten, but involving a general lack of collegiate playing time across the roster, consistent three-point shooting from the guards and wings, and scoring from the centers) make tenth a reasonable result in the poll, especially for a program that has finished between sixth and tenth in the ACC in each of the last nine seasons.

The best possible case for the Orange is pretty obvious. Mintz blossoms into a potential All-American, forming one of the most dynamic backcourts in the nation with Starling. McLeod is a defensive backbone, affecting opposing shooters and cleaning the glass. Either one or both of Bell and Taylor combine for defense-stretching perimeter shooting while Benny Williams brings highlight dunks and skies for rebounds. Maliq Brown is Maliq Brown and Quadir Copeland uses his versatility to fill in around the edges.

Syracuse runs off a 23-win regular season, snags a top-four finish in the ACC, and the word “bubble” is only mentioned after the words “not on the”.

The more likely outcome is this young team has a bumpy transition to man-to-man defense, particularly under the weight of their very heavy four-week stretch in non-conference play starting in Maui. While talented, this young group is very likely to show inconsistency from game to game, or even smaller increments of play. Mix in expected off nights, foul trouble, and level of competition, and the most likely outcome for this team is finishing barely above .500.

Finishing that brutal non-conference schedule at 7-4 would be good. Wrapping ACC play at a game above .500 would also be a positive. Those two things happening would put the Orange at 18-13 when the schedule is completed.

Four non-conference losses is very likely. Tennessee and either Purdue or Gonzaga in Maui, LSU, and Oregon are all on the schedule and all could very easily end up on the down side of the ledger.

The 20-game ACC slate is going to be tough, even in what is likely to be a season where there is likely a maximum of two great teams, but a list of good teams as long as McLeod’s arm.

And so, while Syracuse has a much deeper roster than normal for recent seasons, there are very few sure things on it. So, the smart expectation seems to be another one of those seasons that, despite all the changes, has become all-too-familiar: A number of wins in the upper teens as a season of highs and lows jerks your heart around while you hope they end up on the good side of the tournament bubble.

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