Three adjustments Syracuse should make heading into ACC play

The Christmas break provided a couple days off to the world of college basketball. Once the four games of the Diamond Head Classic wrapped on Christmas Eve, the world of Division I hoops hit the pause button for two days. The games stopped, as did the entire statistical world surrounding college basketball, including computer ratings.

Syracuse went into their holiday break with a 9-3 record, including victories in four straight and six of seven games overall. That recent hot stretch included a home win over LSU, a road conquest of Georgetown, and a neutral-site victory over Oregon.

My preseason preview noted that the Orange would be in good shape if they survived their non-conference slate at 7-4. Removing their lone conference game, a loss at Virginia, leaves SU two games ahead of that schedule. And that non-conference resume includes wins over those three name-brand opponents mentioned above.

Okay, you got me. This is the part where we dive into what those victories over the Tigers, Hoyas, and Ducks really mean for Syracuse’s future and their hopeful return to the NCAA Tournament. And, yes, that early mention of computer ratings means digging through numbers.

The Orange went into this little break at #83 in the NET rankings, #86 at KenPom.com, and #87 at T-Rank.

The NET lists Oregon at #68 in the country, LSU at #154 and Georgetown at #205. KenPom.com has them #48, #104, and #183, respectively. T-Rank ranks the Ducks at #49, the Tigers #117, and the Hoyas down at #177.

What do all those numbers mean? Well, the latter two of those three victories are much more store brand than name-brand. After all, KenPom.com has other Syracuse opponents Cornell at #121, Colgate at #154, and Canisius at #178.

The NET has Cornell at #93, Colgate #148, and Canisius #137. T-Rank lists them at #124, #154, and #156, respectively.

As such, there should not be flowers tossed the way of the Orange for the victory over Georgetown and probably just a handful of blooms airborne as a result of their win over LSU. The win over Oregon looks pretty good, but that view might go a little awry when the phrase “seven available scholarship players” comes up again. With those numbers, including that “seven,” no one will give SU much credit for those three victories.

If we turn toward the future based on what we have seen in the past, the view does not appreciably improve. SU will see no one other than conference opponents unless they make a postseason tournament… which means they may not see anyone not from the ACC until next season.

The NET rankings have Syracuse standing 11th among ACC teams, trailing Boston College and Wake Forest. They had previously been in front of those two squads following with their win over Oregon, but the Orange have since been passed by them.

Other rating systems view SU similarly. Ken Pomeroy ranks them 10th among ACC teams, one spot ahead of Boston College (and 25 spots behind Wake Forest). T-Rank slots them 11th in the conference.

In other words, Syracuse is going to need to do some good work to get better and compete in the ACC. In fact, a glance at the individual player stats at T-Rank lead to some suggestions.

T-Rank has the Orange as one of the worst shooting teams in the nation between the three-point line and what they list as “close 2’s”. SU shoots 27.6 percent on other 2-pointers with every player aside from Naheem McLeod and J.J. Starling being a culprit. McLeod is 1-of-2 on the season, Starling is just above 40 percent, and every other player on the roster shoots 28.6 percent or less from the mid-range.

McLeod is allowed to be a shotblocking threat, as it is the fulcrum of his game, but he cannot abandon the glass. Maliq Brown also has to step it up on the defensive glass, as both centers trail Quadir Copeland, Justin Taylor, and Benny Williams in defensive rebounding rate. Brown is giving up some size at SU’s primary reserve center, but that does not prevent him from easily outpacing every non-center on the roster in offensive rebounding rate. Get to work, fellas.

Starling is second on the team in field goal attempts classified as “close 2’s”, but has made only half those shots. For comparison, the rest of the roster shoots over 65 percent on close 2’s. While a slightly below average free throw shooter at 69.2 percent, that means Starling is an expected 1.384 points per possession on two foul shots compared to the 1.000 points per possession when he shoots a close 2 (and the possibility of an and-one delivering just shy of 2.7 points per possession exists when he is fouled). Get thee to the rim, Mister Starling.

Things will pick up for Syracuse pretty quickly, as conference play begins in earnest on Saturday when Pittsburgh comes to town for the first of six straight games where the Orange face an opponent rated higher than them in all three analyses, save for being a nose ahead of Boston College. Even with all the higher math used to generate those ratings, the numbers on the scoreboard over the next three weeks will simplify things for SU.

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